Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 10.821077 13.335701 16.166886 19.569981 23.527801 27.963662 33.288311
2025-04-20 7.294068 10.496799 14.544070 19.940523 26.844653 35.274143 46.224646
2025-04-27 5.479912 8.924162 13.683985 20.537104 29.919362 42.065483 58.692177
2025-05-04 4.358077 7.904651 13.193256 21.302874 33.019561 48.890915 71.494118
2025-05-11 3.491534 7.009073 12.634874 21.760610 35.577224 55.028280 83.659990
2025-05-18 2.727502 6.066558 11.789749 21.588761 37.090431 59.700576 93.992268
2025-05-25 2.061310 5.107161 10.712980 20.843365 37.570907 62.811411 102.188090
2025-06-01 1.623125 4.456644 10.028672 20.602117 38.736437 66.920123 111.966815
2025-06-08 1.210443 3.728188 9.050256 19.687230 38.664773 69.064147 118.856512
2025-06-15 1.033602 3.483337 8.956084 20.326406 41.207609 75.395057 132.380627
2025-06-22 0.785818 2.974683 8.217888 19.643948 41.375063 77.894559 140.040262
2025-06-29 0.681927 2.818617 8.207474 20.362957 44.063516 84.628741 154.659760
2025-07-06 0.451048 2.203718 7.065357 18.733255 42.503574 84.505312 158.835863
2025-07-13 0.363060 2.007836 6.891865 19.130201 44.819244 91.192644 174.621539
2025-07-20 0.298715 1.861952 6.810212 19.709751 47.527025 98.709680 192.141543
2025-07-27 0.250798 1.753580 6.802956 20.450824 50.605994 107.042834 211.403282
2025-08-03 0.203626 1.616727 6.679262 20.893796 53.103746 114.450618 229.394305
2025-08-10 0.153348 1.422768 6.329477 20.727487 54.305611 119.533763 243.565521
2025-08-17 0.106291 1.194845 5.797493 20.006219 54.238835 122.222242 253.623471
2025-08-24 0.077586 1.044393 5.474998 19.772815 55.196445 126.875789 267.341323
2025-08-31 0.050287 0.857845 4.950153 18.887838 54.591576 128.454025 275.550765
2025-09-07 0.041173 0.812054 4.954938 19.506090 57.488048 137.038069 296.881572
2025-09-14 0.026676 0.679250 4.549305 18.845977 57.313942 139.488135 306.966371